Modelling ferry passenger numbers

Author: Carl Henrik Marcussen.

This paper models the number of ferry round trips per day in order to make suggestions for future ferry schedules for an island – in this case Bornholm. Calendar effects, including the effect of moving religious holidays, as well as the overall annual level of economic activity, are taken into account. The model for the number of round trips per day is also applicable to the number of passengers per day. If the number of passengers (and arrivals) per day is forecast, this may be used as a basis for forecasting daily, weekly and monthly activity levels for service providers at the destination, including service providers in the accommodations sector. For islands, data for all passengers to/from the destination may be available (ferries and airlines). Based on these daily, weekly or monthly passenger numbers, both domestic and international numbers may be modelled and forecast. Other destinations may model and forecast daily, weekly and monthly international arrivals by air in order to support decisions at the destination site.