The Regional Model for Business and Employment SAM/K-LINE® is a socio-economic model developed and run by researchers at the Centre for Regional and Tourism Research.
The model combines the local social accounts SAM-K (“Social Accounting Matrices for Municipalities”) with the regional economic calculation model LINE (“Local INSectoral and Interregional Economic model”). It makes it possible to monitor and project the development for local businesses and the labour market with different time horizons, as well as calculate scenarios/projects in a consistent manner.
The detailed insight into the economic and employment effects of change gives the model’s users a stronger basis for decision making and/or the ability to document impact for decision makers.
Regions, municipalities and others with a large and continuous analysis need to become subscribers of the model and thus have access to data from SAM-K as well as detailed projections. In addition, users gain access to the User Forum, partly for support and guidance, but also for exchange of experience with other users of the model. Twice a year, user group meetings are held (in Danish), where subscribers have the opportunity to gain in-depth knowledge of the model and also to influence the development of the model in cooperation with the model team.
CRT also makes stand-alone analyses with data from the Regional Model for both private and public organisations.
Contact the Model Team if you would like an offer for a calculation with the model or to develop a special version of the model that is tailored to a continuous need for data.
SAM-K is a local social account and is an extended version of the regional accounts that Statistics Denmark presents for Denmark. SAM-K provides an exhaustive and flexible description of the economic, business and employment activity in the Danish municipalities, regions and labour force catchments.
SAM-K includes the following data sources when compiling regional and local social accounts:
Compared to the normally available statistics for regions and municipalities, SAM-K offers several options eg.:
LINE is a local economic calculation model that incorporates the basic detailed economic contexts needed to establish a community account at local level, i.e. in the same way as the social accounts SAM-K.
The LINE model can set up such a regional social account with municipalities as the geographical unit. By aggregation, the model can also be applied to groups of municipalities of their choice such as regions, employment regions and labour markets. With specified assumptions that the user can choose himself, the model, in conjunction with SAM-K, can calculate a new regional account based on these self-chosen assumptions.
These properties make LINE a tool for calculating the local economy – and also the national economy – consequences of external events, changed assumptions, own interventions etc. The results of the impact calculations are reflected in changed income and employment conditions exactly as detailed as data is in SAM-K.
For example, LINE can be used to answer questions like these:
By incorporating a number of assumptions about trends, LINE is also a tool for projecting the local economy. By combining LINE with SAM-K, you can quantify the estimated effects of changing framework conditions and larger business closures.
LINE has previously been used to simulate short-term economic and employment effects of change, both for municipalities, regions and across the country. If one wants to assess more long-term (supply) effects of changed framework conditions, it is possible to combine SAM-K with a so-called general equilibrium model. These are special versions of LINE, which, in great detail, calculate supply and demand in different sectors and provide knowledge about which education is needed in the longer term – for example, CRT has developed special versions of LINE in the Building and Construction sector as well as the Health sector.
Regional and local projections will naturally be subject to uncertainty because the projection is of the economy under specific specified assumptions. Thus, there is no question of a prediction of the future, but merely a calculation of the economic and employment situation under certain conditions and thus an illustration of how the development can go if the assumptions are correct.
However, projections are still an important and useful element in strengthening the decision-making basis for long-term decisions. For example, projections will be able to give an indication of what types of education and competencies there will be a shortage/surplus in the long term, which is important in order to be able to start the right business and employment policy today.