Business and Labor Market

The Business and Labour Market Model is a socio-economic special version of SAM-K/Line, which describes the socio-economic effects of the industrial activities of the industries in Danish municipalities.

It is an analytical tool for relevant authorities and organizations that will monitor and plan competence and knowledge development that can ensure balance in the future labor market in Denmark. It is a tool for trade associations and larger organizations looking to demonstrate the impact of local investment or business activities.

Results of the basic form model for the latest socio-economic analyses (specific publications in the botón)

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Economic projections are inherently subject to uncertainty, but despite uncertainty the model provides:

• The best estimate of the supply and demand for education and skills in future labor markets – conditional on the expectation we have today for the development, population projection and a theoretical modeling of the way the economy functions.
• An assessment of the significance of selected elements in the projection. Sensitivity or scenario analyzes illuminate this by successively changing assumptions and/or calculations in the model, partly on the demand side and on the supply side

The Business and Labour Market Model is a unique tool for regional development

There are several reasons why the model is unique in a Danish and international context:

• It has been developed and improved through many years of cooperation with the Danish regions.
• It takes into account the assumptions of macroeconomic developments in Denmark and uses the ADAM (Annual Danish Aggregate Model) to uncover macroeconomic trends and price changes.
• At the local (municipal/regional) level, it is projected on the basis of trends in the demand for training and skills in various industries. The provost is a () in a.
• SAM-K/LINE as a model is recognized in 2019 by an international Scientific Evaluation Board composed of professors in the fields of economic models, health economics, etc.

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• SAM-K/LINE is with ADAM and
• Modelo covers the 5 regions, 16 destinations and 98 municipalities with a projection horizon up to 2040
• The model draws on numerous national records
• SAM-K/LINE is a status recognized in 2019 by an international scientific agency. The board concluded that the model is “state-of-the-art”
• The tourism model and SAM-K/Line are operated and maintained by the Centre for Regional Tourism Research

• Anual analyses on future labour markets in Danish municipalities
• Monitoring the balance between supply and demand for training and skills
• Executing different scenarios with concrete problems with different prerequisites
• Development of special versions with specific focus areas for local relevant issues
• Conducting various scientific and application-oriented studies, publications, conference releases, etc.

The model uses a variety of micro and macro data.

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Population:

• Population development: The BEF register is used, among other things, to enter data into the model on the population's municipality of residence, gender, age and more.
• Education: The registry UDDA is used to add detailed information about education level.

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Employment and Income:

• Employment: The registers RAS, AMR and BFL are used to provide a detailed insight into employment by municipality of residence, municipality of place of work for both employed and self-employed persons.
• Income and consumption: There are currently no official statistics on the distribution of consumer goods at the municipal level. Therefore, the model estimates it based on, among other things, the IND register, which contains register-based income data and the Consumption Survey, which can be used to estimate consumption shares at municipal level.

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National data:

• National Accounts Data: The version also uses the Municipal Regional National Accounts (KRNR) data from DST, which is essential for municipal distribution of the effect of tourism. At the same time, we also receive Access/Use (TA) data, which are the most detailed national accounts data and which are essential in the model to calculate which industries are affected by tourist consumption.
• ADAM projection: Since TA data are only released in connection with the final national accounts, which is approximately 2.5 years after the end of the reference year, TA data must be projected. Among other things, ADAM projection data are used here.

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